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The first afternoon of this current Arc meeting unfolded in bright sunshine on Saturday, but the clods of turf being kicked up in the Group One Prix du Cadran were a sign of the significant downpour that had fallen since Friday evening, changing the shape and storyline of Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

“Very soft and it’s going to take a lot of getting,” was the verdict of the winning jockey after his victory on his mount in the first Prix Chaudenay, a opinion that was echoed by another rider, the Cadran winner aboard the trainer’s his horse.

“It’s very soft but not heavy,” he said. “I think it would be an injustice to call it deep because they’ve done a really good job of having us on the best part of the track, and on Sunday it will widen again to freshen it up, but it’s challenging.”

For good or ill, the chances of all 17 competitors have been influenced by the abrupt worsening of the ground, but the biggest casualties in the conditions gamble have been the 3 entrants from the Asian nation, attempting to triumph where 33 fellow countrymen have fallen short over the last fifty-six years.

Only a seven days ago, Byzantine Dream, another runner and Croix Du Nord were all priced up between eight-to-one and sixteen-to-one, the firm ground had lasted well beyond its usual September end date at the Paris track and there was even speculation of the favorite approaching the peak of the market as bettors latched on to the booking of Oisin Murphy to ride.

All three horses were also entering the Arc following a success in a recognised prep race, an rare level of quality for a Japan’s bid. But the recent draw for starting positions left both the hopeful and the contender stuck in wide gates, the rain has added to the difficulty of their task and each are now offered at 14-1 or higher.

That does not, of course, mean that they are without hope, but each will start with their opportunity markedly reduced. Japanese racing is conducted almost exclusively on fast surfaces or faster, so the studs and mares in its breeding programme are fast-ground thoroughbreds. It normally demands a peak effort to capture an Arc, and the three are unlikely to achieve their very best form on the soggy track or, in the case of Byzantine Dream and Croix Du Nord, from a outside gate.

The advantage has shifted noticeably towards the European contenders, and horses from France, the Emerald Isle and Britain now fill the top six positions in the betting for what is an remarkably competitive edition of the European showpiece event.

André Fabre is looking for a record victory in the Arc and will fancy his chances with his contender, a 9-1 choice, and another runner, at around 12-1.

Aidan O’Brien’s Minnie Hauk, unbeaten in four races this year including the Epsom Oaks and Irish Oaks, is a narrow frontrunner from the French Group One victor, the filly, who was a length and a bit behind Bluestocking in second a year ago.

The mare, the defeated favourite when fourth-placed last year, is a 9-1 option to give the trainer a record-extending 9th Arc, while another contender, a narrow runner-up to Croix Du Nord over a mile and a quarter at the course in their prep recently, is a 12-1 chance alongside the King George horse, the Ascot second, and an additional Fabre-trained entry, the three-year-old.

All six have plenty to support their case, but the some question mark about their chance too. The favorite has a difficult stall next to the inside in gate 1, which has not housed the Arc winner since 2008, while Aventure won a Vermeille in which the market leader, the expected contender, obviously failed to run anywhere close to form. Kalapana, meanwhile, was a far below of her Ascot performance in her Arc preparation at the British track last month, and the runner has not been obviously enhanced as a older horse.

That makes one option and Cualificar as interesting choices, not only because they are also the probable contenders to make a big step forward on the occasion that matters most.

Daryz, who was probably unlucky not to beat the Japanese horse previously, has just six runs in the record and while he is stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time, he is a result of the the owner’s breeding operation and all but sure to appreciate the additional two furlongs.

The three-year-old (3.05), however, is almost just as unexposed at 12 furlongs, having had his first start at the complete Arc trip just last month when he was victorious in the the trial. His trainer’s history in the event is impressive – he has already won two times as many wins as every other handler in its 105-year history – and he has plotted a strategic route towards Longchamp with his most recent three-year-old contender.

Cualificar was a easy victor of the Prix Niel – the stepping stone for Fabre’s 6 prior three-year-old Arc winners – and while he has a bit to find with Minnie Hauk and Aventure on ratings, appears nearly certain to improve markedly on that form on Sunday.

William Buick will also have plenty of choices from an ideal stall in gate 8 and at around twelve-to-one with British bookmakers, the horse is an strong wager to give the nation’s most successful trainer one more victory in his home premier race.